Shelf-life prediction: A comparison of methods

Abstract

The shelf-life assessment of a product is essential to ensuring its safety and integrity. Shelf life is the period of time during which the product retains its required quality level under well-defined storage conditions. To assess the stability of a generic product, a stability test is required: the product is kept under di↵erent storage conditions and the performance of characteris- tics used to assess the quality of the product is monitored. Data collected through stability tests are then used to predict the product’s shelf life under further storage conditions a applying the calculated degradation rate. Ki- netic models, such as the Arrhenius equation, are usually applied for this purpose. Since humidity can accelerate product degradation, it may be of interest to consider methods which quantify the e↵ect of humidity. This pa- per proposes a comparison of several methods used to predict shelf life: the Bracket method, Eyring method, Peck method, Klinger method and Q-rule. Two case studies are performed to compare the performance of the applied methods, in order to determine the most accurate method.