Trend Analysis and Change Point Detection of Winter Rice in North Bank Plains Zone (NBPZ) of Assam: A Non-parametric Approach

Abstract

Assam is well-recognized for its rich genetic diversity of rice. The climatic condition and geographical location cause better production of rice in the past of Assam. Winter rice is the leading rice crop, accounting for a major portion of the total rice production in Assam and NBPZ is one of the main regions where most of its livelihood depends on agriculture. The purpose of the study is to analyze the trend of area, production, and productivity of winter rice and identify the change point for winter rice productivity in NBPZ of Assam. Analyzing over thirty years of the data for the NBPZ led to the detection of the change point for the productivity of winter rice. The study also revealed that the NBPZ is not limited to studying climate- resilient productivity of winter rice only, but there is a great need for the implementation of effective measures on crop production and productivity. Thus, the outcome of the study has believed to reveal a better implementable plan for the farmers for designing an efficient agricultural policy by the policy makers.